Joint airstrikes against Iran targeting high-value military installations to hinder Iran’s nuclear development efforts and degrade its military capabilities while removing the Iranian regime from power are ongoing. The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, marked a significant escalation in the conflict. Iran retaliated by launching a broad series of missile attacks directed at Israel and multiple Gulf states, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The repercussions have been felt across the region as global energy flows were disrupted and oil and gas prices surged. Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves — is at a standstill. A sustained spike in energy prices would likely require evidence of a more prolonged disruption, something not evident at this time and not our base case. […]
Maintaining Course Through Geopolitical Uncertainty
