2025 Midyear Outlook: Pragmatic Optimism, Measured Expectations

We started 2025 on a high note, although we acknowledged that “no market environment is ever permanent, and that change is always potentially around the corner.” Well change did come, and with it, volatility, perhaps in part because we assumed President Trump’s policies would simply mirror those of his prior term. The impact of policy direction […]

Read More…

America Gets Record High Stock Prices for Its Birthday

The stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in the face of these crosscurrents has been impressive, proving yet again that the fundamentals […]

Read More…

Riding the Rollercoaster: Investing During Inflation and Market Volatility

In today’s economic environment, where market volatility and inflation are often unpredictable and inevitable, investing can sometimes feel like a rollercoaster. However, investing during these periods doesn’t have to be a heart-stopping experience. Here are the key areas investors must be aware of to help their ride go more smoothly. Understanding market volatility In simple […]

Read More…

Volatility Likely to Bring Opportunities As Trade Uncertainty Continues

As June begins, markets continue to navigate a complex landscape shaped by trade policy shifts, an uncertain economic and earnings outlook, and bond market headwinds. Several key developments in recent weeks may have implications for markets: As we move further into the summer months, key catalysts to watch include inflation data, further developments in trade […]

Read More…

Market Resilience Amid Uncertainty

The latest recovery is another reminder that periods of turmoil can often create opportunities. Although stocks may pull back after their strong rally since the April 8 lows — especially if trade deals and tariff reductions don’t materialize soon — the lesson is clear: in our view, staying the course during downturns is almost always […]

Read More…

Tariff Transition

As spring approaches and the weather warms, the U.S. economy has begun to cool. After a sizzling recovery from the pandemic, followed by a period of surprisingly solid and steady growth on the back of resilient consumer spending, the economy finally seems poised to downshift to its pre-pandemic trend near 2% growth. Recent confidence surveys […]

Read More…

AI Advances and Tariff Tactics

The new month brings two major market-moving stories to digest. First is the advances in artificial intelligence (AI) by Chinese startup DeepSeek. It has caused some investors to question America’s lead in the AI race and American Exceptionalism more broadly. To answer that question, it’s important to look at this idea holistically.  U.S. advantages in research and development spending, capital markets depth, the dollar’s privilege as the global reserve currency, and more suggest U.S. exceptionalism will remain intact.

Impending tariffs on our three biggest trading partners are also among the news ushered in with the new […]

Read More…

Another Strong Year for Stocks

Stocks had another very strong year in 2024. In fact, 2024 marked the first time the S&P 500 has enjoyed a +20% gain in back-to-back years since 1997–98. Last year didn’t start out so optimistically though. The list of worries among stock-market bears included high valuations, narrow leadership by the largest technology stocks, rising long-term […]

Read More…